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Rmd 0be926e Dave Tang 2025-11-03 Matthews Correlation Coefficient

Introduction

The Matthews Correlation Coefficient (MCC) is a single-number measure of how well a binary classification model performs. It takes into account true and false positives and negatives, providing a balanced evaluation even when classes are unevenly distributed.

Imagine an email classifier that predicts whether an email is spam (1) or not spam (0).

Predicted Positive Predicted Negative
Actual Positive True Positive (TP) False Negative (FN)
Actual Negative False Positive (FP) True Negative (TN)

The MCC is calculated following:

\[ \text{MCC} = \frac{(TP \times TN) - (FP \times FN)}{\sqrt{(TP+FP)(TP+FN)(TN+FP)(TN+FN)}} \]

  • +1: perfect prediction
  • 0: random prediction
  • −1: total disagreement (inverse prediction)

MCC works well even with class imbalance and provides a balanced score.

Simple example

Given the following predictions and actual outcomes:

actual <- c(1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 1, 0)
predicted <- c(1, 0, 1, 0, 0, 0, 1, 1)
table(actual, predicted)
      predicted
actual 0 1
     0 3 1
     1 1 3
  • TP = 3
  • TN = 3
  • FP = 1
  • FN = 1

Calculate the MCC:

TP <- 3
TN <- 3
FP <- 1
FN <- 1

my_mcc <- (TP * TN - FP * FN) /
  sqrt((TP + FP) * (TP + FN) * (TN + FP) * (TN + FN))

my_mcc
[1] 0.5

Multiclass

Suppose we have a model predicting three possible classes: “A”, “B”, and “C”.

# Ground truth (actual labels)
truth <- factor(c("A", "B", "C", "A", "B", "C", "A", "C", "B", "B"))

# Model predictions
predicted <- factor(c("A", "C", "C", "A", "B", "B", "C", "C", "B", "A"))

results <- tibble(
  truth = truth,
  estimate = predicted
)

results
# A tibble: 10 × 2
   truth estimate
   <fct> <fct>   
 1 A     A       
 2 B     C       
 3 C     C       
 4 A     A       
 5 B     B       
 6 C     B       
 7 A     C       
 8 C     C       
 9 B     B       
10 B     A       

Using {yardstick}.

yardstick::mcc_vec(truth, predicted)
[1] 0.4090909

sessionInfo()
R version 4.5.0 (2025-04-11)
Platform: x86_64-pc-linux-gnu
Running under: Ubuntu 24.04.3 LTS

Matrix products: default
BLAS:   /usr/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/openblas-pthread/libblas.so.3 
LAPACK: /usr/lib/x86_64-linux-gnu/openblas-pthread/libopenblasp-r0.3.26.so;  LAPACK version 3.12.0

locale:
 [1] LC_CTYPE=en_US.UTF-8       LC_NUMERIC=C              
 [3] LC_TIME=en_US.UTF-8        LC_COLLATE=en_US.UTF-8    
 [5] LC_MONETARY=en_US.UTF-8    LC_MESSAGES=en_US.UTF-8   
 [7] LC_PAPER=en_US.UTF-8       LC_NAME=C                 
 [9] LC_ADDRESS=C               LC_TELEPHONE=C            
[11] LC_MEASUREMENT=en_US.UTF-8 LC_IDENTIFICATION=C       

time zone: Etc/UTC
tzcode source: system (glibc)

attached base packages:
[1] stats     graphics  grDevices utils     datasets  methods   base     

other attached packages:
 [1] yardstick_1.3.2 lubridate_1.9.4 forcats_1.0.0   stringr_1.5.1  
 [5] dplyr_1.1.4     purrr_1.0.4     readr_2.1.5     tidyr_1.3.1    
 [9] tibble_3.3.0    ggplot2_3.5.2   tidyverse_2.0.0 workflowr_1.7.1

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[17] ps_1.9.1           promises_1.3.3     httr_1.4.7         scales_1.4.0      
[21] jquerylib_0.1.4    cli_3.6.5          rlang_1.1.6        withr_3.0.2       
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